Obamacare: Monday or Monday, or Tuesday … or Never?

It’s June. We were chatting at lunch just the other day about  how the Supreme Court announces its decisions on Mondays in June, and usually leaves the bigger cases for last. The Supreme Court will announce its decision on Obamacare either this coming Monday (June 18) or the following Monday (June 25). I suspect they’ll repeal the whole thing, but that’s just a hunch.

If they don’t then presumably we have the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November as a plausible attempted repeal slot. And if not there – when? Programs get entrenched and they just linger.

Don’t take that as a Romney endorsement. He’s no warrior for freedom (see Romneycare).

I personally think the political calculus of the punditry on the issue is wrong. The talking point is that an overturn by the Supremes would be a boost to Obama because it would give him an issue to fight on. I doubt it. I think an overturn is a massive boost to Romney.

Obama does not want to run on Obamacare. If it’s overturned he’d have to go out there and convince America that they really want a program that they have already stated time and again that they don’t want. Romney doesn’t want to run against Obamacare, because he’d then have to discuss Romneycare. An overturn by the Supreme court lets each man run away from the issue.

Beyond that, the narrative is building rather consistently that Obama is a novice and completely in over his head. An overturn of his signature legislation would make him look incompetent and the narrative would absolutely explode.

If the Supreme Court upholds this obviously unconstitutional slave-making bill it would be a massive win for Obama. He doesn’t look like a weakling and Romney has to run on the issue, which he can’t.

Intrade is currently putting the odds of an overturn (just of the individual mandate anyway) at 70%. We shall see.

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