The New Hampshire Primary Is Here!

“Live free or die” – New Hampshire State Motto

I had planned on picking up where we left off yesterday with a discussion of Levitical law based on a question posed reader and good friend yesterday. However, I stayed up late watching the BCS title game and have very little time this morning. So, a couple of notes on New Hampshire instead.

First, I love the state motto. We shall see just how New Hampshire feels about the motto. From where I sit though, there is only one candidate in the Republican field who actually believes in freedom – Ron Paul. We’ll see how he does.

What to watch for: In these early states it’s all about beating expectations. The current Real Clear Politics averages of New Hampshire polls show it Romney 37.7, Paul 17.7, Huntsman 14.3, Santorum 11.0, Gingrich 9.7, and Perry 1.0. If Romney finishes under 35% it may well look like a failure, but over 40% or 45% and he’ll look very strong. I’m personally hoping to see Ron Paul get up to the 25% mark … so get out there and vote New Hampshire!

New Hampshire is a proportional allocation state (with a 10% threshold). Thus anybody getting over 10% of the vote will get delegates at the convention. There are a number of these states in the Republican slate this year, and there is even talk that it might lead to a “brokered convention” – where nobody has 50% of the delegates and some serious horse trading goes on. I’m still skeptical it will come to that, but I’m also still skeptical that Romney rolls to a win.

Regardless of what happens, expect the punditry to hail it as the end of this or that candidate or “sealing the deal” for another. These guys need stuff to talk about too. Rest assured though that the current polling data says nobody has it wrapped up, and this thing will tumble along for a while.

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